In 2025, the global order is witnessing a profound transformation. Nowhere is this more evident than in South Asia, where the evolving relationship between Russia, China, and India—three of the world’s most influential powers—is poised to redefine the region’s strategic landscape. With the revival of the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral format, deepening operational ties between Moscow and Beijing, and India’s delicate balancing act, the stage is set for a potential realignment that could have far-reaching implications for South Asia and beyond.
This article provides a comprehensive analysis of this possible big shift, exploring the historical roots, current dynamics, and future trajectories of the Russia-China-India association. We examine the strategic motivations, opportunities, and challenges facing each nation, and assess what this means for the wider region and the global order.
Table of Contents
- Historical Context: The Genesis of the RIC Trilateral
- Russia’s Strategic Pivot: Between China and India
- China’s Expanding Influence and Its Implications
- India’s Balancing Act: Autonomy Amidst Giants
- The Revival of the RIC Format: Why Now?
- Operational Convergence: Russia-China Bloc-Building
- India-Russia: The Enduring Partnership
- India-China: From Rivalry to Pragmatic Engagement
- Strategic Opportunities and Sectoral Cooperation
- Challenges and Constraints
- Implications for South Asia
- Global Impact: Multipolarity and the New World Order
- Conclusion: The Road Ahead
1. Historical Context: The Genesis of the RIC Trilateral
The Russia-India-China (RIC) Trilateral was conceived in the late 1990s by Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov. The vision was clear: to create a strategic platform that could counterbalance Western dominance, especially that of the United States, and foster cooperation on regional and global issues. Over the years, the RIC format facilitated more than 20 ministerial-level meetings, focusing on foreign policy coordination, economic cooperation, and security dialogue.
The RIC was more than a diplomatic forum; it was a statement of intent—a move towards a multipolar world order where non-Western powers could assert their interests and shape global governance. However, the format lost momentum after the 2020 Galwan Valley border incident, which severely strained India-China relations.
2. Russia’s Strategic Pivot: Between China and India
Russia’s Geopolitical Calculus
Russia’s foreign policy in the 21st century has been characterized by a quest for strategic autonomy and a desire to reclaim its status as a global power. The imposition of Western sanctions following the 2014 Crimea annexation and the 2022 Ukraine conflict accelerated Moscow’s pivot towards Asia, particularly China. By 2023, Russia-China trade reached $240 billion, driven by energy exports and Chinese investments.
The India Factor
Despite its deepening ties with Beijing, Russia has long valued its partnership with India—a relationship rooted in Cold War-era cooperation and marked by robust defense and energy ties. However, Moscow’s growing reliance on China has raised concerns in New Delhi about being sidelined in the evolving Eurasian order.
Russia’s Balancing Act
For Russia, the challenge is to maintain a balanced approach within the RIC, ensuring that India’s strategic interests are not overshadowed by the Russia-China axis. Moscow’s recent push to revive the RIC format reflects its recognition of India’s importance as a counterweight to China and as a key partner in its vision for a multipolar Eurasia.
3. China’s Expanding Influence and Its Implications
The Rise of China
China’s meteoric rise as an economic and military powerhouse has transformed the dynamics of Eurasia and South Asia. Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), expanding influence in Central Asia, and assertive posture in the Indo-Pacific have positioned it as both a partner and a competitor to Russia and India.
Russia-China Operational Convergence
The May 2025 summit in Moscow marked a significant step in Russia-China strategic convergence. The two countries issued detailed joint statements and over 20 new cooperation agreements across defense, technology, finance, and digital infrastructure. This alignment is not just symbolic; it is operational, with practical mechanisms for tighter coordination in sectors under U.S. scrutiny, such as artificial intelligence, energy, and cross-border payments.
Economic Asymmetry
While Russia remains an indispensable commodities partner, the economic relationship is increasingly asymmetric, with China playing the dominant role. Expanded references to yuan-based trade settlement and supply chain coordination in the 2025 agreements underscore Beijing’s growing leverage.
Implications for India
China’s expanding influence presents both opportunities and challenges for India. On one hand, a stable RIC framework could help mitigate bilateral tensions; on the other, India remains wary of being encircled by China’s strategic initiatives, especially in South Asia and the Indian Ocean.
4. India’s Balancing Act: Autonomy Amidst Giants
Strategic Autonomy
India’s foreign policy is anchored in the principle of strategic autonomy—the ability to engage with multiple powers without being subsumed into any one bloc. As a member of the Quad (with the US, Japan, and Australia) and a key partner in the BRICS and SCO, India has adeptly navigated the complex web of global alliances.
Defense and Energy Ties with Russia
Despite growing ties with the West, India continues to rely on Russia for critical defense systems (such as the S-400 air defense system) and energy supplies. In 2024, India’s imports of Russian crude oil reached 2 million barrels per day, capitalizing on discounted rates due to Western sanctions.
Managing China Relations
India’s relationship with China remains fraught, marked by border disputes and competition for influence in South Asia. However, recent signs of de-escalation and pragmatic engagement suggest a willingness to explore areas of cooperation within the RIC framework.
5. The Revival of the RIC Format: Why Now?
Russia’s Motivation
Russia’s push to revive the RIC format is driven by several factors:
- Easing India-China Tensions: Signs of de-escalation along the India-China border have created a conducive environment for trilateral dialogue.
- Countering Western Influence: Moscow views the rise of Western alliances like NATO and the Quad as a threat to regional stability and seeks to balance this through the RIC.
- Promoting Eurasian Security: The RIC is seen as a vehicle for establishing a “single and equitable system of security and cooperation in Eurasia”.
India and China’s Calculus
For India, participation in the RIC offers a platform to assert its interests and prevent the formation of a Russia-China axis that could marginalize New Delhi. For China, the RIC provides an avenue to engage India constructively and counterbalance U.S.-led coalitions in the Indo-Pacific.
6. Operational Convergence: Russia-China Bloc-Building
Beyond Rhetoric
The 2025 Russia-China summit marked a shift from symbolic reaffirmation to functional coordination. The two countries are operationalizing their partnership through:
- Defense and Technology: Joint projects in artificial intelligence, biosecurity, and digital infrastructure.
- Energy and Finance: Expanded trade, new investment protection treaties, and upgraded cross-border payment systems.
- Multilateral Governance: Coordinated positions in BRICS, SCO, and the “Greater Eurasian Partnership”.
Ideological Alignment
The joint statements portray the partnership as a normative response to U.S. hegemony, invoking World War II memory, defending sovereign development rights, and opposing Western-led institutions. This reflects a deeper ideological and structural commitment to constructing parallel systems in trade, security, and information governance.
Limitations
Despite the convergence, underlying asymmetries and competing interests—particularly in Central Asia and the Arctic—may constrain how far this alignment extends beyond coordinated rhetoric.
7. India-Russia: The Enduring Partnership
Defense Collaboration
India remains one of Russia’s largest arms importers, with Moscow supplying cutting-edge weaponry and co-developing advanced systems like the BrahMos missile. This defense partnership underpins India’s military modernization and strategic autonomy.
Energy Security
Russia is a key supplier of oil, gas, and nuclear technology to India. The two countries are exploring joint energy projects in the Arctic and Central Asia, with potential Chinese involvement in logistics and infrastructure.
Technological Cooperation
Beyond defense and energy, India and Russia are expanding cooperation in technology, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture. This diversification reduces over-reliance on China and strengthens the bilateral relationship.
8. India-China: From Rivalry to Pragmatic Engagement
Border Disputes and Tensions
The 2020 Galwan Valley clash marked a low point in India-China relations, leading to a freeze in RIC activities and heightened mutual distrust. India’s opposition to China’s BRI and concerns over Chinese influence in South Asia further complicate ties.
Signs of Thaw
Recent diplomatic engagements and confidence-building measures have paved the way for a cautious rapprochement. Both countries recognize the benefits of stability and economic cooperation, especially in the face of shared challenges like terrorism and climate change.
Opportunities for Cooperation
Within the RIC framework, India and China can explore joint initiatives in energy, connectivity, and regional security. Russia’s role as a neutral arbiter is crucial in facilitating dialogue and building trust.
9. Strategic Opportunities and Sectoral Cooperation
- Trilateral Energy Initiatives
The RIC can leverage Russia’s energy reserves, China’s financial resources, and India’s market potential to develop joint projects in LNG, pipelines, and renewable energy. - Eurasian Connectivity
The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) offers a framework for enhancing trade connectivity between Russia and India, with potential Chinese involvement. - Technology and Innovation
Collaboration in emerging technologies—such as artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and space exploration—can drive innovation and economic growth across the trilateral. - Multilateral Coordination
Coordinated positions in global forums like the UN, BRICS, and SCO amplify the collective influence of Russia, China, and India.
10. Challenges and Constraints
- Geopolitical Rivalries
Competing interests in Central Asia, the Indo-Pacific, and the Arctic could limit the depth of trilateral cooperation. - Economic Asymmetries
The growing economic asymmetry between Russia and China could create imbalances within the RIC, potentially marginalizing India’s interests. - External Pressures
Western sanctions on Russia, U.S.-China strategic competition, and the evolving Indo-Pacific security architecture add layers of complexity. - Domestic Politics
Nationalist sentiments and leadership transitions could influence trilateral engagement.
11. Implications for South Asia
- Regional Stability
A revived RIC could serve as a stabilizing force, mitigating the risk of conflict. - Economic Integration
Enhanced connectivity and trade could spur economic growth across South Asia. - Security Cooperation
Joint efforts to combat terrorism and cyber threats can enhance regional resilience. - Diplomatic Leverage
South Asian nations may benefit from increased engagement among the three powers.
12. Global Impact: Multipolarity and the New World Order
- Challenging Western Dominance
The RIC represents a challenge to Western-led institutions and promotes multipolarity. - Parallel Systems
The creation of alternative systems in trade, finance, and security could reduce Western dominance. - Bloc Politics
The trilateral may accelerate the formation of new global blocs and alliances.
13. Conclusion: The Road Ahead
The evolving association between Russia, China, and India could become a cornerstone of a new geopolitical order in South Asia and beyond. While challenges remain, the revival of the RIC format offers a platform for cooperation, dialogue, and strategic balance. The coming years will determine whether this trilateral can overcome its constraints and shape a more inclusive, multipolar world.
